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The Latest News About Imports is Very Good News

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If the latest news about imports is good news, then the holiday season is looking much brighter.

According to the new Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, imports surged to unexpected high levels this summer and may have hit a new record as the U.S. economy continues to reopen and retailers stock up for the holiday season.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.92 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in July, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 2.3% year over year but up 19.3% from June and significantly higher than the 1.76 million TEU forecast a month ago. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.

August was estimated at 2.06 million TEU, a 6% year-over-year increase, according to the report, but actual August numbers won’t be known until next month. Still, the current estimate would be an all-time high, beating the previous record of 2.04 million TEU set in October 2018.

The forecast numbers call for 7.58 million TEU during the July-October “peak season” when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays, making 2020 the third-busiest peak season on record following 7.7 million TEU in 2018 and 7.66 million TEU last year.

“It’s important to be careful how much to read into these numbers after all we’ve seen this year, but retailers are importing far more merchandise for the holidays than we expected even a month ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Some of these imports are helping replenish inventories that started to run low after consumers unleashed pent-up demand when stores reopened. But this is the clearest sign yet that we could be in for a much happier holiday season than many had thought.”

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produces Global Port Tracker for the NRF, said the import economy is coming into a sharper focus. 

“The previous yo-yo pattern of import levels reached a peak in July that appears to have extended into August,” he added. “Nonetheless, data from around the globe is a mix, with a weak recovery as Europe struggles with rising COVID-19 numbers but China’s exports remain solid. Will this last? A lot of uncertainty is in play.”

September is forecast at 1.89 million TEU, up 1.1% year over year; October at 1.71 million TEU, down 9.2%; November at 1.58 million TEU, down 6.8%, and December at 1.53 million TEU, down 11%.

The combined numbers for the year would bring 2020 to a total of 20.1 million TEU, a drop of 6.7% from last year, the lowest annual total since 19.1 million TEU in 2016. The first half of 2020 totaled 9.5 million TEU, down 10.6% from last year.

Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for several U.S. ports.

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